Jason
09-14-2004, 03:22 PM
By Larry Singer, senior vice president and Strategic Insight Officer at Sun Microsystems.
10.Sep.04--Yogi Berra once (famously) said "Its like Deja Vu all over again", clearly not knowing how appropriate this might be to describe HP's current HP-UX strategy.
Less than two years after abandoning its inherited Tru64 UNIX customers, HP seems on the same path once again to abandon another one of its very loyal customer bases. This time it is its HP-UX UNIX customer base, which is now beginning to see signs that HP may not be committed to the HP-UX UNIX business for the long haul.
First some history. When HP chose to end-of-life Tru64 UNIX, those customers were given a choice. Stay where you are and ride out the end of life of Tru64 UNIX and the Alpha platform, or move to HP-UX, on the HP 9000 PA-RISC or HP Integrity Itanium platforms, and become part of HP's much larger UNIX installed base. To appease these customers, HP promised a new version of HP-UX, 11i Version 3, which incorporated the good stuff from Tru 64, particularly the clustering and file system.
More importantly, for both the Tru64 and HP-UX customers, HP-UX 11i v3 was going to be the same version for both the HP 9000 family and the HP Integrity family. Greatly simplifying architecture decisions, deployment and support, as well as minimizing disruptive transitions in the future. And it was promised for late 2004.
In October 2003 HP Senior Vice President, Rich Marcello, had to admit, due to technical difficulties, this was not a timetable HP could keep, and the delivery date for HP-UX 11i v3 was pushed out to "late 2005". Recent rumblings in the industry suggest that this date may now slip into 2006.
The slippage of HP-UX 11i v3 by up to 18 months (currently), is a major concern for existing HP-UX customers.
First, it deprives them of functionality that many need and want. Second, it diminishes Independent Software Vendor (ISV) interest in porting to HP-UX's "designated platform" - Itanium - until this major release of HP-UX is available. Third, it allows other operating systems, such as Linux and Windows Server to establish a foothold on the Itanium platform well before the new HP-UX will be available.
However, probably the most important reason HP-UX customers should be concerned is because HP's platform strategy is marginalizing HP-UX, and therefore threatening its future relevance as an operating system.
HP has stated that its future platforms will be based on Itanium on the high-end and x86 (Intel Xeon and AMD Opteron) on the low-end, with the middle probably being a mix of both. To date the Itanium platform has yet to establish any significant volumes in the market so demand for applications for the platform is not that high. However, in the x86 space demand is booming, particularly for the new hybrid 32/64-bit processors from AMD and Intel. According to industry analyst Gartner, AMD Opteron outshipped Itanium by a factor of 10 in Q2 2004, and also recorded a more than twenty fold increase in units shipped over the same quarter last year.
And herein lies HP's dilemma and the reason for the darkening clouds over the future of HP-UX.
HP-UX doomed?
The largest installed base HP has is its x86, or Industry Standard Server (ISS) base, which now represents nearly 55% of its Enterprise Storage and Server (ESS) division revenues, and is the fastest growing segment. HP has publicly stated it has no plans to port HP-UX to its x86 based systems. This was revealed in a recent interview with Ann Livermore, Head of HP's Enterprise Systems division, in InfoWorld ("No Need for HP-UX on x86", Robert McMillan and Patrick Thibodeau, IDG News Service, August 17, 2004):
"IDGNS: Would you think of porting HP-UX, for example, to the x86 platform, now that there are these 64-bit systems?
Livermore: No, we don't think that we need to do that."
This statement from HP's number two executive should send shivers down the spines of HP-UX customers, because it categorically states that HP is not prepared to make HP-UX available to one of its largest platform bases, and in fact one of the fastest growing segments of the server market. Further contributing to the demise and questionable viability of HP-UX.
This is in stark contrast to Sun Microsystems, which has thoroughly embraced this emerging market and is offering its highly regarded Solaris operating system on its own AMD Opteron and Intel Xeon based systems.
In addition, there is mounting evidence that Itanium, is being eclipsed currently by AMD Opteron, in terms of sales and market acceptance, thus making Opteron a more attractive deployment platform for many customers. And, in fact, systems sporting these new processors fit perfectly in the 2-4 way space, which is the current "sweet spot" of HP's Itanium based Integrity systems, with over 90% of servers shipped, according to International Data Corporation's recently published Q2 2004 marketshare numbers.
HP-UX customers, therefore, have to consider that if the future of HP-UX is the Itanium platform, and Itanium is losing to AMD Opteron, which will never offer HP-UX, then where is the future for HP-UX. Clearly customers are concerned about this, which is why they are taking advantage of Sun's HP Away program to move off HP. (http://www.sun.com/datacenter/migration/hpux/)
Add to this mix, the fact that Intel is now in a bitter fight with AMD for the rapidly emerging x86 based 32/64 bit hybrid processor market, and will go to whatever lengths to protect its x86 franchise (including sacrificing the nascent Itanium), and you have a very bleak picture for the future of HP-UX.
In summary for HP-UX to have a future, HP desperately needs Itanium to be a success in the market. Unfortunately, for HP, Itanium continues to significantly lag analyst projections and market expectations, and is now being seriously challenged by the new x86 based 32/64 bit hybrid processors from AMD, and soon from Intel, and which will not offer HP-UX.
The only other platform HP-UX is available on is the HP 9000 PA-RISC based platform, and HP has already announced the end-of-life for this platform, so it has increasingly less appeal for ISVs etc., who are not about to port to a platform with no future.
Has HP-UX got a future?
In our opinion the answer is a resounding NO, given the facts. It is, as Yogi Berra said, deja vu all over again, with HP-UX looking as though it is about to share the same fate as other HP operating systems such as MPEiX and Tru64 UNIX.
In the meantime, Sun Microsystems, is offering the very latest version, Solaris 10, of its market leading and highly regarded enterprise class UNIX operating system on both its x86 based and SPARC based systems. This provides customers with flexibility and choice of hardware platform, while offering a consistent and cohesive operating environment for their computing infrastructure. An offering which is unique among the major system vendors.
Furthermore Sun offers a variety of products and services, through the HP Away program, that make it easy for HP customers to migrate to a Sun platform with an assured future.
Source: Sun Microsystems (http://www.sun.com/executives/realitycheck/)
10.Sep.04--Yogi Berra once (famously) said "Its like Deja Vu all over again", clearly not knowing how appropriate this might be to describe HP's current HP-UX strategy.
Less than two years after abandoning its inherited Tru64 UNIX customers, HP seems on the same path once again to abandon another one of its very loyal customer bases. This time it is its HP-UX UNIX customer base, which is now beginning to see signs that HP may not be committed to the HP-UX UNIX business for the long haul.
First some history. When HP chose to end-of-life Tru64 UNIX, those customers were given a choice. Stay where you are and ride out the end of life of Tru64 UNIX and the Alpha platform, or move to HP-UX, on the HP 9000 PA-RISC or HP Integrity Itanium platforms, and become part of HP's much larger UNIX installed base. To appease these customers, HP promised a new version of HP-UX, 11i Version 3, which incorporated the good stuff from Tru 64, particularly the clustering and file system.
More importantly, for both the Tru64 and HP-UX customers, HP-UX 11i v3 was going to be the same version for both the HP 9000 family and the HP Integrity family. Greatly simplifying architecture decisions, deployment and support, as well as minimizing disruptive transitions in the future. And it was promised for late 2004.
In October 2003 HP Senior Vice President, Rich Marcello, had to admit, due to technical difficulties, this was not a timetable HP could keep, and the delivery date for HP-UX 11i v3 was pushed out to "late 2005". Recent rumblings in the industry suggest that this date may now slip into 2006.
The slippage of HP-UX 11i v3 by up to 18 months (currently), is a major concern for existing HP-UX customers.
First, it deprives them of functionality that many need and want. Second, it diminishes Independent Software Vendor (ISV) interest in porting to HP-UX's "designated platform" - Itanium - until this major release of HP-UX is available. Third, it allows other operating systems, such as Linux and Windows Server to establish a foothold on the Itanium platform well before the new HP-UX will be available.
However, probably the most important reason HP-UX customers should be concerned is because HP's platform strategy is marginalizing HP-UX, and therefore threatening its future relevance as an operating system.
HP has stated that its future platforms will be based on Itanium on the high-end and x86 (Intel Xeon and AMD Opteron) on the low-end, with the middle probably being a mix of both. To date the Itanium platform has yet to establish any significant volumes in the market so demand for applications for the platform is not that high. However, in the x86 space demand is booming, particularly for the new hybrid 32/64-bit processors from AMD and Intel. According to industry analyst Gartner, AMD Opteron outshipped Itanium by a factor of 10 in Q2 2004, and also recorded a more than twenty fold increase in units shipped over the same quarter last year.
And herein lies HP's dilemma and the reason for the darkening clouds over the future of HP-UX.
HP-UX doomed?
The largest installed base HP has is its x86, or Industry Standard Server (ISS) base, which now represents nearly 55% of its Enterprise Storage and Server (ESS) division revenues, and is the fastest growing segment. HP has publicly stated it has no plans to port HP-UX to its x86 based systems. This was revealed in a recent interview with Ann Livermore, Head of HP's Enterprise Systems division, in InfoWorld ("No Need for HP-UX on x86", Robert McMillan and Patrick Thibodeau, IDG News Service, August 17, 2004):
"IDGNS: Would you think of porting HP-UX, for example, to the x86 platform, now that there are these 64-bit systems?
Livermore: No, we don't think that we need to do that."
This statement from HP's number two executive should send shivers down the spines of HP-UX customers, because it categorically states that HP is not prepared to make HP-UX available to one of its largest platform bases, and in fact one of the fastest growing segments of the server market. Further contributing to the demise and questionable viability of HP-UX.
This is in stark contrast to Sun Microsystems, which has thoroughly embraced this emerging market and is offering its highly regarded Solaris operating system on its own AMD Opteron and Intel Xeon based systems.
In addition, there is mounting evidence that Itanium, is being eclipsed currently by AMD Opteron, in terms of sales and market acceptance, thus making Opteron a more attractive deployment platform for many customers. And, in fact, systems sporting these new processors fit perfectly in the 2-4 way space, which is the current "sweet spot" of HP's Itanium based Integrity systems, with over 90% of servers shipped, according to International Data Corporation's recently published Q2 2004 marketshare numbers.
HP-UX customers, therefore, have to consider that if the future of HP-UX is the Itanium platform, and Itanium is losing to AMD Opteron, which will never offer HP-UX, then where is the future for HP-UX. Clearly customers are concerned about this, which is why they are taking advantage of Sun's HP Away program to move off HP. (http://www.sun.com/datacenter/migration/hpux/)
Add to this mix, the fact that Intel is now in a bitter fight with AMD for the rapidly emerging x86 based 32/64 bit hybrid processor market, and will go to whatever lengths to protect its x86 franchise (including sacrificing the nascent Itanium), and you have a very bleak picture for the future of HP-UX.
In summary for HP-UX to have a future, HP desperately needs Itanium to be a success in the market. Unfortunately, for HP, Itanium continues to significantly lag analyst projections and market expectations, and is now being seriously challenged by the new x86 based 32/64 bit hybrid processors from AMD, and soon from Intel, and which will not offer HP-UX.
The only other platform HP-UX is available on is the HP 9000 PA-RISC based platform, and HP has already announced the end-of-life for this platform, so it has increasingly less appeal for ISVs etc., who are not about to port to a platform with no future.
Has HP-UX got a future?
In our opinion the answer is a resounding NO, given the facts. It is, as Yogi Berra said, deja vu all over again, with HP-UX looking as though it is about to share the same fate as other HP operating systems such as MPEiX and Tru64 UNIX.
In the meantime, Sun Microsystems, is offering the very latest version, Solaris 10, of its market leading and highly regarded enterprise class UNIX operating system on both its x86 based and SPARC based systems. This provides customers with flexibility and choice of hardware platform, while offering a consistent and cohesive operating environment for their computing infrastructure. An offering which is unique among the major system vendors.
Furthermore Sun offers a variety of products and services, through the HP Away program, that make it easy for HP customers to migrate to a Sun platform with an assured future.
Source: Sun Microsystems (http://www.sun.com/executives/realitycheck/)